Wednesday, January 04, 2017

An Inquiry into the Wealth of Two Tigers

What If
Let us assume for one second that Singapore had kept the value of her currency against one USD at its average rate of 2.2002 for 1985. Not a bad objective as combined with positive growth rates generated by adjustments in the real economy her people would have felt a lot richer when going abroad for holidays or to grab companies and ideas to move forward as a nation. If she had kept the value of her currency constant at that level then at the end of 2015 her GDP per capita would have been $33,047. Quite a number don't you think?

Better Than South Korea
That's better than the $27,222 of South Korea. You know the country which makes your Samsung smartphone. Better than the $29,867 of the Italy of Massimo Bottura -- the guy who drops a fistful of pasta in a boiling pot with mathematical precision. And just above the land of the rising sun. Yep, the shogunate was pretty zen at position 24 with its $32,479.

But Tiger Had Other Plans
Except that Singapore did not manage to keep her currency fixed at that level. In fact over the 30 years since her currency has appreciated quite a bit against the USD. Indeed the average exchange rate in 2015 was 1.3748 to the dollar. That's a 60% overall appreciation which has enabled the Asian Tiger to clock $52,888 per capita and to hop over an impressive list of countries. Like the Germany of Gauss at rank 18, the UK of Newton at rank 13, the Sweden of Borg at 11 and Denmark -- where people take a lot less sick days because they are on their bikes so often -- at position no. 8. So the appreciating currency has enabled Singapore to overtake fifteen top countries in a thirty-year period. At these levels it's difficult to hop over just one country. But Singapore was jumping over one such country on average every two years. Simply amazing.