Sithanen Toohrooh Crosses Trillion-Rupee Threshold

This happened at the end of April. Yep, a trillion rupees of GDP is missing with respect to Dr. bean-counter's forecast of average growth of 8% after mindlessly slashing top tax rates to 15%. That's like our GDP for 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006 combined. 6 years of GDP. Or roughly those of 2011, 2012 and 2013 put together. So it's been a failure of epic proportions. Nothing has hurt Mauritius as much as the Sithanen flat tax. Absolutely nothing. No natural calamity has done this kind of damage. And boy did we have calamities in the last 50-60 years. Because nothing has shaved off more than four percentage points off the target growth rate six years in a row. As a comparison the consolidation we saw in the textile industry -- especially in 2003 and 2004 -- cut down growth by only 2% and that too in only one year. Let us also not forget the extra 22,000 Mauritians that were thrown into poverty over the first five years of the fake reforms. #prayforzanzibar.

One and Twelve Zeroes

1,000,000,000,000 rupees is not exactly the smallest number you'll encounter today. That's 257 times what the sugar industry is expected to contribute to our economy this year. No typos here. Two hundred and fifty seven times. Or if you want about USD29 billion at our seriously depressed exchange rate. That would have bought 3.6% of Apple at recent prices. Or the whole of Uber according to a valuation by NYU's Damodaran.

Thoughts on Electoral Reform (5)

Elections in Mauritius Are Seldom Referendums

Vote share doesn’t matter that much in Mauritius. We instead have competitions in 21 unequal ridings and the party which grabs anything more than half of the contested seats earns the right to form government. Our first-past-the-post (FPTP) setup is a system which works and has served us really well. And that too for decades. Making it an important part of who we are. Just like progressive taxation and a high savings rates have until 2006. Important matters of the state need to be given the appropriate consideration. It’s definitely not a bad idea that we let ourselves be inspired by examples of profound thinking. Like what Feynman told us about hardware reliability of the Space Shuttle: the necessary redundancy was provided by several independent identical computer systems.

Plenty to Learn From US Election Process

Americans know pretty much what to expect from the person they will elect as President of the world's second largest economy today. And that's thanks in no small measure to the candidates thoroughly discussing the main planks of their plans and to several independent groups of people scrutinising them. If it's Trump they are aware that the extreme version of trickle-down economics he's proposing – a flat tax of 15% – would add 5 trillion dollars to the US national debt, make 3.5 million people lose their jobs and potentially throw the economy into a recession. If it's Clinton the economy should keep on growing from the middle out and that too without a Great Wall that Mexico would be made to pay for. The fiscal policies of these candidates are also consistent with the DNA of their parties: Democrats don't believe and rightly so that tax cuts for the wealthy work while the Republicans do.

Why Poverty is Winning

Because so much of it has been created over the past 10 years. Some people have been getting out of poverty for sure but a lot more have been falling into it. Of the pool of 126,200 poor people in 2012 a staggering 33,000 had joined it over the last decade. That's more than one in every four poor Mauritians. This has happened because our economy has not grown fast enough and whatever wealth was created has not been shared properly.

Massive Policy Failure

Which in turn has mostly been caused by dismal policy-making and the lack of dynamism of our economy. External events have certainly played a role but given that they were beyond our control we shouldn't have spent that much time crying over them. We should also acknowledge the fact that there has been a wide variation in the way poverty has expanded. Chart 1 captures that by looking at how it has progressed over a fifteen-year period. Which coincided roughly with three different governments and in one case with major policy changes.

Will the Budget Be a Non-event?

"On ne parachute pas au ministère des finances quelqu'un qui ne sait pas calculer la dette publique et qui ne connaît pas l'impact de la fiscalité sur la croissance...."

Rama Sithanen, 2009

Like last year's and most of the budgets since 2006? Well, it doesn't have to. It will essentially depend on a single decision. But first let us understand how we got into a deep mess for ten whole years.

Old Policy Crap in New Bottle

The last part of the quote above – emphasis mine – summarises pretty much the main economic story from Mauritius over the last decade. While tax rates definitely impact growth rates – and both of them drive government revenue – the relationship is far from being linear. And it depends to a great extent on the relative ability of our public and private sectors to create wealth or make things happen. In the 1980s for example, as Paul Krugman reminds us, American top tax rates were cut from 36.5% to 26.7% over nine years but they never got the growth rates that would have financed those cuts. What they did get though is a Federal debt ballooning all the way from less than a trillion dollars to four by 1992. And two decades later US politicians were trying to clinch a deal hours before Uncle Sam was scheduled to go into default. The Economist summed up the situation as essentially the product of two tax-cuts, two wars and one stimulus package.

Ramgoolam Vague About Labour DNA

A week ago he said it's made up of unity, development and social justice. For sure these are important values but they are a bit too vague. But first let's see how he did according to these values.

Pretty average in the unity department if the end result of three mandates (especially the last two) has been to bring Mauritius closer to an overcrowded barracoon. Granted that Manou Bheenick -- picked by Ramgoolam after 18 long months -- made us quite proud and united as far as the external value of our currency goes while he was calling the shots at the Central Bank.