Mansoor Statements That Don't Survive A Fact-Check

1. The real threat is AI. And we don't know how fast it's coming, because we have five fingers I say in about 5 years, it can be a bit less, a bit more (2025). So I guess horses think AI will be here in 12 months.

2. Unfortunately neo-liberalism has gone everywhere in the world (2026). No, there are several countries that follow other policies. Examples include the Nordic countries and many other European ones which have a strong welfare state. And he seems to forget that neo-liberalism was brought to Mauritius by him and his university buddy who gave him the post of Financial Secretary when an extreme version of trickle down economics was implemented with a 15% flat tax as from 2006.

3. There were no billionaires in the 1980s (2026). There have been billionaires since at least 1919.

4. We found Mao's cat that's good at catching mice (2013). Destroying our savings culture and generating growth rates that were much lower than the promised 8% hardly makes the case for Chairman Mao's feline being active during his stint as FS for almost eight years. 

5. Tax cuts have worked as government received more revenue and jobs were created thanks to a higher level of investments (2011). This contradicts his own circular where he said that revenues would fall till 2013. And it was obvious that the tens of billions of rupees of FDI we had received since 2006 did not prevent the creation of a massive amount of poverty. Plus if the reforms had worked why did Sithanen not get a ticket and not even run as an independent candidate? Besides other components of the infamous reforms killed our savings culture. Mansoor should also tell us how the average GDP growth from 2006 to 2011 compared with the 8% target. There was also calls for his contract not to be renewed and even be terminated.

6. Our water problem is one of management, not of lack of finances (2011). The water network has expanded significantly after the CWA was established in 1973 including watershed events like the coming into operation of the Midlands Dam in 2003. If everything was going on swimmingly why was the payment of the rice/flour subsidy shifted from the budget to the STC? And there was also the cancellation of the school-feeding program which cost peanuts.

7. Rama Sithanen is one of the most intelligent economists I have met (2010). You should meet more and different economists. Befriending a Rs5 coin might also not be a bad move.

World Bank Not Shutting Down Yet, Publishes Another Sloppy Report Instead

The Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) for Mauritius that came out recently is typical of the dumb reports that the World Bank (WB) dishes out non-stop. Skimming through it immediately brings back to mind Lee Kuan Yew’s famous observation:

What Harry Said 

About the WB

“The World Bank report’s conclusion are part of the culture of America and, by extension, of international institutions. It had to present its findings in a bland and universalizable way, which I find unsatisfying because it doesn’t grapple with the real problems. It makes the hopeful assumption that all men are equal, that people all over the world are the same. They are not.”

32% of World Bank Policy Reports Never Downloaded

"... I am not an engineer, I am not a technician and everything that I have done in my life is only law. So, I need expert advice and I am going to put experts and not politicians at the Head of the CEB and the CWA. I am not going to do appel international and all that."

Ivan Collendavelloo, in Parliament, March 2015

"... Nun fini konpran ki nu bizin lasistans de la bank mondyal pu ki nu kapav fer bann bon developman dan sekter delo."

Ivan Collendavelloo, Feb 2016

The World Has No Time
For This Kind Of Nonsense

So reported The Economist at the end of last May. It referred to a study by the World Bank on the popularity of its policy reports. As almost half of them are supposed to at least improve public debate the two authors of the report – Doerte Doemeland and James Trevino – looked at how many times 1,611 of these policy documents were downloaded. Turns out that almost a third was never downloaded. I am not surprised. I got to read a few them over the years and I must say there's a lot of rubbish in there. So I perfectly understand that no one is bothering about so many of these reports. Who has time for crap in this fast-moving, intelligent and hyper-connected world?

Recall Elections Are Key To Better Political Outcomes

A recall election is a constitutional tool to eject an MP from Parliament anytime between general elections if enough of the voters in her constituency sign a petition to that effect. A by-election is then organised. Given the performance and the behaviour of some of the MPs that we've been sending to Parliament over the past 15-20 years we voters clearly need a way to make them work in our national interest throughout a whole term and not just a little bit at the start and another little bit at the end. Recall elections do precisely that.

Had we had this system in place since 2005 we would have been an entirely different country by keeping elected politicians on their toes. In at least four situations. The first one is in February 2007 when Sithanen took the country hostage because he wanted to second-guess the prerogative of the PM with respect to the appointment of the Governor of the Bank of Mauritius. He then went on to cause extensive damage to our economy for three whole years. With a recall election he might have been out in a few months. A by-election in those days would have cost around Rs20-25 million. A trifle really compared to what he has set in motion: a trillion-rupee Toohrooh. 

Lepep Not Mandated To Sell Any Part of the CWA

It’s Not in Their Manifesto

Page 19 has five points under the heading of “Fourniture d’eau”. One such point is “Remplacement à court et moyen termes les tuyaux désuets afin d’assurer une fourniture régulière 24 heures sur 24…” Basic common sense when we know that 1,600km of our pipes – some of which are over 50 years old – need to be replaced, right? Another one is “Aménager des barrages dans nos rivières pour récupérer autant d’eau que possible pour être canalisés vers les stations de traitement”. Who will disagree with this when we know we don’t capture enough of all the rainfall that we’re blessed to receive every year? The three other points deal with the Bagatelle dam, emergency water trucks and reforestation. No mention of privatisation of any part of the CWA or subterfuges like affermage. Didn’t see any plan for the CEB to create private companies to avoid the Central Procurement Board either.

Did Lepep Change Its Mind?

If it has it will have to ask voters for their permission on such a fundamental issue because there is no way it would have won 47-13 in December 2014 if one of its electoral pledges was to mess up our public utilities one way or another. It can do that in two ways. One is to call for fresh general elections and the other is to organise a referendum on the issue. A referendum is a lot better as it would enlarge our democratic space and enable Government to get the clearest of signals.

Lepep Budget May Miss Boat, Again

Budget Doesn't Address Dominant Issue

Namely the extensive damage caused by the flat tax: 1. a massive GDP gap; 2. a serious impairment of our domestic savings; 3. making Mauritius less competitive and dynamic by keeping local pump prices at unreal levels and 4. generating the smallest increase in real disposable income for the poorest 20% of households of the last twenty-five years. Besides the flat tax was implemented on the basis of spurious claims.

Will the Budget Be a Non-event?

"On ne parachute pas au ministère des finances quelqu'un qui ne sait pas calculer la dette publique et qui ne connaît pas l'impact de la fiscalité sur la croissance...."

Rama Sithanen, 2009

Like last year's and most of the budgets since 2006? Well, it doesn't have to. It will essentially depend on a single decision. But first let us understand how we got into a deep mess for ten whole years.

Old Policy Crap in New Bottle

The last part of the quote above – emphasis mine – summarises pretty much the main economic story from Mauritius over the last decade. While tax rates definitely impact growth rates – and both of them drive government revenue – the relationship is far from being linear. And it depends to a great extent on the relative ability of our public and private sectors to create wealth or make things happen. In the 1980s for example, as Paul Krugman reminds us, American top tax rates were cut from 36.5% to 26.7% over nine years but they never got the growth rates that would have financed those cuts. What they did get though is a Federal debt ballooning all the way from less than a trillion dollars to four by 1992. And two decades later US politicians were trying to clinch a deal hours before Uncle Sam was scheduled to go into default. The Economist summed up the situation as essentially the product of two tax-cuts, two wars and one stimulus package.

How Bad Was Sithanen?

His nine-year-old economic reforms have been an unmitigated mess. Plenty has been written about this. For example his policies have been worse than flipping a coin. A roulette in the Treasury Building would have produced even better outcomes. Which gives you an idea of the kind of skills mismatch we're talking about here. But let's look at it from a different perspective given how sophisticated Mauritian voters have shown us they can be.

Mr. Sithanen claims that he saved the economy. If that's the case then why didn't he:

1. get a ticket from Ramgoolam in 2010?

2. get a MMM ticket in 2010 after asking voters to punish one fils a papa who had betrayed him?

3. stand as an independent candidate in no. 18 in 2010? Dr. Sithanen was after all a force to reckon with in Belle-Rose/Quatre-Bornes. Not anymore.

Because if you analyse electoral data you'll find out that the people of Mauritius are able to express a whole range of feelings. For example and as the chart illustrates Sir Veerasamy Ringadoo -- our Minister of Finance for a long time -- had no problem facing the music in 1982 and even got 20% of the votes in his riding. Because SVR knew that he had done his best. Nine years later Lutchmeenaraidoo ran as a candidate for a party other than the one which had made him Finance Minister for eight years and still managed to get 46% of the votes. Fast forward nine years again and we have voters expressing an amount of sympathy towards former Police Commissioner Raj Dayal that almost got him into Parliament.