Wednesday, June 24, 2026

Prayag Statements That Don't Survive A Fact-Check

 1. A budget is a country's moment of truth where illusions meet numbers (2026). Nope. The budget is a series of announcements some of which may not find their way into the Finance Act and fewer still implemented. There can also be a fair amount of creative accounting as we have seen in several of the budgets of the past 20 years. 

2. This year's budget more than ever will be a showdown between the reality of numbers and past practices (2026). The economic model of the recent decade of MSM rule is the same model implemented between 2006 and 2014 when Navin was at the helm.

3. This year's budget will say clearly what Mauritius can still afford, what it cannot finance anymore and what must be corrected before it's too late (2026). No guarantee about this as in last year's budget the BRP was deemed unsustainable but the government was planning 14 billion rupees into the construction of new roads when we already have way to many roads. It also didn't highlight the fact that the 15% flat tax and other unsustainable tax structures never delivered the 8% growth promise. And government didn't update the population on the renewal of the abusive IPP contracts.

4. For too long government has overspent with little regard to economic prudence (2026). The main problem of the last 20 years is the implementation of a low and for most of the part flat tax structure which has basically ruined Mauritius. The economy is about 2.5X smaller than what the low tax structure was supposed to generate. It was not exactly prudent to kill our savings culture so as to finance an unsustainable tax structure.

5. The cost of overspending has never been presented (2026). Since 2006 we've constantly updated the population on how they were being taking for a ride and how the unsustainable tax structure was ruining Mauritius. All of this was backed by numbers. For instance between 2006 and 2024 there has been a GDP shortfall of more than 6 trillion rupees.

6. The impact of overspending by government can be seen in the debt/GDP ratio, deficits and depreciation of the rupee (2026). For one the GDP is 2.5X smaller as expected so we need to take all ratios that use it with a big grain of salt. Budget deficits are also due to a drastically smaller economy. Trade deficits are the results of several terribly bad policy decisions. One such decision are the abusive IPP contracts that have pulled Mauritius down for more than 20 years.

7. We need to distinguish between blind austerity and budgetary responsabilty (2026). At the beginning of his toxic reforms Sithanen said that we need to make two years of sacrifice and then we'll be ok. Killing our savings culture is not exactly what you would call a sacrifice. It's rather sheer economic suicide unless you're aware of an economy that thrives after its savings culture has been assassinated. As a matter of fact last year's budget was precisely that: blind austerity. You steal the pension of our old folks but at the same time you announce that you'll spend 14 billion rupees in the new roads. And you keep mum about the renewal of three abusive contracts but during 2025 you disconnect 21,000 subscribers from the CEB grid.

8. It's about to abandon the most vulnerable or to destroy the welfare state (2026). This is precisely what has been going on since 2006. For a start have a look at how national income was distributed across the population for the five years which ended in 2012. And it looks as if you haven't heard what Jyoti Jeetun has been saying for a while. Namely that our public health system is a very heavy burden and that solutions will need to be found.

9. A state that spends without counting will end up not being able to help the most vulnerable (2026). The problem with the Mauritian state is that it embarked on a ruinous path since 2006 and this has caused some astronomical underspending including in our welfare state.

10. The next budget is going to be difficult but governing is not about buying social peace with pubic money (2026). Social peace is a top priority and all governments buy it with public money because having people rioting in the streets is not conducive to economic growth. Ask countries in the Middle East after the Arab Spring. Surely public money should not be spent paying a 35% return to IPPs that don't take any risk.

Tuesday, June 23, 2026

Jeetun Statements That Don't Survive A Fact-Check

 1. BRP is unsustainable because it represents 25% of the budget (2026). Whilst it's true that the BRP has been used as an electoral weapon in at least three general elections one must not forget that the economy is about 2.5X smaller than what the 15% flat tax and other unsustainable tax structures since 2006 were supposed to generate. So if we divide by 2.5 we get roughly a very manageable 10% which going forward will even decrease with an average management of the economy.

2. Our free public health system is a very heavy burden for the state so that we'll need to find solutions in the future (2026). Our public health system has for all intents and purposes crashed. Rs18.5 billion was set aside for it in the 2025/26 budget which represents only 2.3% of GDP. Seychelles budget 5% of GDP for the same item. Do the math. Don't forget that our economy is 2.5X smaller than what Sithanen had forecasted.


3. BRP targeting is almost inevitable otherwise there will come a time when there will be no money to pay any BRP to anyone (2026). Navin Ramgoolam has used the same argument which we've debunked again recently in Preokipasion Sitwayin.

4. Is this why I have joined politics and how will I look pensioners in their eyes (2026)? How did it go last year when people who were going to turn 60 did not get their BRP? You should look in their eeys and explain to them why you think a crashing public health system is a very heavy burden.

5. It's a budget that sets the stage for growth (2026). Nope. We're going to be stuck in what for Mauritius are very low growth rates because abusive IPP contracts are likely not to have been renewed at reasonable terms because otherwise government would have used this information as genuine selling points.

6. There are two ways of increasing the revenues of the state. One is cut expenses like pensions, the other is to increase revenues through growth (2026). You likely meant reducing the deficit and eventually reducing the debt/GDP ratio. But there are more ways of reducing the deficit including introducing a wealth tax, reducing wastage, merging parastatals and selling participation in state assets. While we certainly don't want government to sell ownership in government assets a wealth tax is overdue given the mess the unsustainable tax structure for the past twenty years has put Mauritius into.

7. We used to produce 700,000 tons of sugar a long time ago but now we produce 200,000 to 225,000 tons. We should be able increase our sugar production (2026). Sugar weighs only about 0.5% of our economy which means that it's been dead for a long time. No amount of money will revive it. It did get Rs 5 billion in 2007. This was pure wastage.

8. The best way to help a poor person is to give him a good job. This will give him dignity (2026). And what exactly does stealing the BRP and throwing thousands into poverty do? Or concreting agricultural lands that puts him out of the real estate market for good?

9. Last year we were at the edge of a cliff. We took some difficult decisions. Today we can breathe a little better (2026). As we've shown several times there were plenty of things that government could have done to improve public finances instead of stealing the BRP of our old folks.


10. Two of the areas where lack of planning and investment has been severe over the past 10 years have been in water and electricity (2026). Not 10 years but 20. Tell us how many kms of leaking pipes have been changed each year since 2005 and how much did the CEB invest in extra power generation. You're also awfully quiet on the abusive IPP contracts that have been killing our economy and international competitiveness for more than two decades.

Mansoor Statements That Don't Survive A Fact-Check

1. The real threat is AI. And we don't know how fast it's coming, because we have five fingers I say in about 5 years, it can be a bit less, a bit more (2025). So I guess horses think AI will be here in 12 months.

2. Unfortunately neo-liberalism has gone everywhere in the world (2026). No, there are several countries that follow other policies. Examples include the Nordic countries and many other European ones which have a strong welfare state. And he seems to forget that neo-liberalism was brought to Mauritius by him and his university buddy who gave him the post of Financial Secretary when an extreme version of trickle down economics was implemented with a 15% flat tax as from 2006.

3. There were no billionaires in the 1980s (2026). There have been billionaires since at least 1919.

4. He found Mao's cat that's good at catching mice (2013). Destroying our savings culture and generating growth rates that were much lower than the promised 8% hardly makes the case for Chairman Mao's feline being active during his stint as FS for almost eight years

5. Tax cuts have worked as government received more revenue and jobs were created thanks to a higher level of investments (2011). This contradicts his own circular where he said that revenues would fall till 2013. And it was obvious that the tens of billions of rupees of FDI we had received since 2006 did not prevent the creation of a massive amount of poverty. Plus if the reforms had worked why did Sithanen not get a ticket and not even run as an independent candidate? Besides other component of the infamous reforms killed our savings culture. Mansoor should also tell us how the average GDP growth from 2006 to 2011 compared with the 8% target. There was also calls for his contract not to be renewed and even be terminated.

6. Our water problem is one of management not of lack of finances (2011). The water network has expanded significantly after the CWA was established in 1973 including watershed events like the coming into operation of the Midlands Dam in 2003. If everything was going on swimmingly why was the payment of the rice/flour subsidy shifted from the budget to the STC. And there was also the cancellation of the school-feeding program which cost peanuts.

7. Rama Sithanen is one of the most intelligent economists I have met (2010). You should meet more and different economists. Befriending a Rs5 coin might also not be a bad move.

Sunday, June 07, 2026

Dawnlod Nu Liv Gratis Pu Konpran En Ta Zafer Mari Vit


Pu kumanse par palab ki pe fer depi 12 mwa lor kifer in kokin pansion vieyes. Apre, pu ki rezon system lasante piblik in krash. Nu osi met diyl Sagos dan perspektiv ki bizin. Ena osi en sapit lor reform elektoral. Antu 10 sapit pu met en ta linformasion dan lame sitwayin pu relev deba dan pei. En ta lekol kuyon pu ferme la. Nek gete u.

Meyer version (miltimedia) se lor u laparey Apple.

Friday, December 05, 2025

Book Which Improves An Amazing Electoral System Published

The FPTP version that we use in Mauritius since 1967 has served us extremely well but during the past quarter of a century politicians have been trying to replace it with a mixed system which would be a complete disaster. The principal purpose of this book is to help prevent this calamity by critically looking at all the main electoral proposals since 2002. 

It also provides more than a dozen vital criteria to evaluate any electoral system or proposition and will therefore put the debate on electoral reform on a firm footing. The book which can be pre-ordered right away refines an interesting solution, backed by a thorough analysis of electoral data, we presented in 2014. Happy reading!

Monday, September 29, 2025

Yen Statements That Don't Survive A Fact-Check

1. BRP eligibility at 60 years was an anomaly that had to be removed (2025). BRP is an important component of our welfare state which keeps 1/3 of Mauritians out of poverty. If you postpone the age people start getting it you will create a lot of poverty and hardship just like the 2012 HBS showed us voodoo economics had – an extra 22,000 people became poor over the preceding five years – and slow down the economy because a lot of these monies are used to buy essential things which keep the economy healthy not villas 99% Mauritians cannot afford.

2. It's shocking to see that we spend 90 billion rupees in the budget on social security while spending only 20 billion on education and health each and about 10 billion in other sectors (2025). Our economy at the end of 2024 was 2.3X times smaller than what Sithanen said it would grow to when he introduced his ruinous 15% flat tax in 2006 so it's not a big surprise that several of our budget items are a lot smaller than they ought to have been. Granted the BRP increased a bit too quickly during the last 10 years but if the economy had grown as Sithanen said it would with a very unfair share contribution from the wealthiest and we spent the same shares of GDP as the Seychelles then we should have spent 3.5X more on education than what we've budgeted in FY25/26 (Rs80.1 billion instead of 22.8 billion) and 5X more on health or 93.2 billion (instead of Rs18.5 billion).


Saturday, September 13, 2025

The Jag! Turns 20


So Elisa who thought I was quite opinionated asked me a question: "Why don't you blog?". I asked what that was and she gave me a rundown and after some time followed it up with an email with links to two blogging services, wordpress and blogger. I preferred the latter and published my first post OTD twenty years ago. 

Tuesday, September 09, 2025

Gid Pu Konpran Byin Revolt Sitwayin Kont Reform BRP

Tiena irzans?

ADC tiena plin lozasion pu dir lepep ki zot pu repus pansion vieyes a 65 an. Ala 11:

1. pandan 10 an ki zot ti dan karo kan

2. pandan kanpayn elektoral 2024 (sirtu port a port)

3. lor zot paz FB ek ban lezot rezo sosio

4. lor radio dernie 10 an