Vishnu Will Not Deliver A 'Second' Miracle

Because he is now Minister of Foreign Affairs. He was unable to deliver it in 15 months which by the way is exactly how long Pravind Jugnauth was FM in the third Bleu-Blanc-Rouge government. And just like Mr. Lutchmeenaraidoo the leader of the MSM had promised a second economic miracle. Vishnu's departure from the Ministry which made him a legend will be a personal setback for many people who voted for Lepep because they associated the first 'miracle' with him. And had wanted to witness the making of another. Live and direct.

How Bad Was Sithanen?

His nine-year-old economic reforms have been an unmitigated mess. Plenty has been written about this. For example his policies have been worse than flipping a coin. A roulette in the Treasury Building would have produced even better outcomes. Which gives you an idea of the kind of skills mismatch we're talking about here. But let's look at it from a different perspective given how sophisticated Mauritian voters have shown us they can be.

Mr. Sithanen claims that he saved the economy. If that's the case then why didn't he:

1. get a ticket from Ramgoolam in 2010?

2. get a MMM ticket in 2010 after asking voters to punish one fils a papa who had betrayed him?

3. stand as an independent candidate in no. 18 in 2010? Dr. Sithanen was after all a force to reckon with in Belle-Rose/Quatre-Bornes. Not anymore.

Because if you analyse electoral data you'll find out that the people of Mauritius are able to express a whole range of feelings. For example and as the chart illustrates Sir Veerasamy Ringadoo -- our Minister of Finance for a long time -- had no problem facing the music in 1982 and even got 20% of the votes in his riding. Because SVR knew that he had done his best. Nine years later Lutchmeenaraidoo ran as a candidate for a party other than the one which had made him Finance Minister for eight years and still managed to get 46% of the votes. Fast forward nine years again and we have voters expressing an amount of sympathy towards former Police Commissioner Raj Dayal that almost got him into Parliament.

Sithanen Worried About Savings Rate, Again

So he said in an interview in the Mauritius Times about a week ago. It's not the first time he is worried about our savings rate. In 2005 he was worried sick about how much we were setting aside as a country. Just before starting his 'reforms'. It is a fact that over the 15 years before 2005, Mauritius enjoyed a healthy savings rate that averaged more than 26%. But between 2006 and 2010, that is a few years after bean-counting had taken centre stage, our savings rate had collapsed by 7.5% to an average of 17.1%. He didn't seem especially worried about that while he was in the driver seat. But he is now. Isn't that funny?

He's also worried about poverty and inequality. Let's look at how the poor's biggest enemy -- inflation -- behaved during the first few years of Paglanomics: average inflation was 70% higher than what it was under the government that preceded him!

The most recent HBS (Household Budget Surveys) numbers have also confirmed what anyone who understands the effect of reducing top tax rates has on inequality. And yet flattening the tax structure was the biggest plank of the economic mess of Mr. Sithanen. It didn't only make Mauritius more unequal: it also reduced our growth rate significantly.