1. A budget is a country's moment of truth where illusions meet numbers (2026). Nope. The budget is a series of announcements some of which may not find their way into the Finance Act and fewer still implemented. There can also be a fair amount of creative accounting as we have seen in several of the budgets of the past 20 years.
2. This year's budget more than ever will be a showdown between the reality of numbers and past practices (2026). The economic model of the recent decade of MSM rule is the same model implemented between 2006 and 2014 when Navin was at the helm.
3. This year's budget will say clearly what Mauritius can still afford, what it cannot finance anymore and what must be corrected before it's too late (2026). No guarantee about this as in last year's budget the BRP was deemed unsustainable but the government was planning 14 billion rupees into the construction of new roads when we already have way too many. It also didn't highlight the fact that the 15% flat tax and other unsustainable tax structures never delivered the 8% growth promise. And government didn't update the population on the renewal of the abusive IPP contracts.
4. For too long government has overspent with little regard to economic prudence (2026). The main problem of the last 20 years is the implementation of a low and for the most part flat tax structure which has basically ruined Mauritius. The economy is about 2.5X smaller than what the low tax structure was supposed to generate. It was not either exactly prudent to kill our savings culture so as to finance an unsustainable tax structure.
5. The cost of overspending has never been presented (2026). Since 2006 we've constantly updated the population on how they were being taking for a ride and how the unsustainable tax structure was ruining Mauritius. All of this was backed by numbers. For instance between 2006 and 2024 there has been a GDP shortfall of more than 6 trillion rupees.
6. The impact of overspending by government can be seen in the debt/GDP ratio, deficits and depreciation of the rupee (2026). For one the GDP is 2.5X smaller as expected so we need to take all ratios that use it with a big grain of salt. Budget deficits are also due to a drastically smaller economy. Trade deficits are the results of several terribly bad policy decisions. One such decision are the abusive IPP contracts that have pulled Mauritius down for more than 20 years.
7. We need to distinguish between blind austerity and budgetary responsabilty (2026). At the beginning of his toxic reforms Sithanen said that we need to make two years of sacrifice and then we'll be ok. Killing our savings culture is not what you would call a sacrifice. It's rather sheer economic suicide unless you're aware of an economy that thrives after its savings culture has been assassinated. As a matter of fact last year's budget was precisely that: blind austerity. You steal the pension of our old folks but at the same time you announce that you'll spend 14 billion rupees in the new roads. And you keep mum about the renewal of three abusive contracts but during 2025 you disconnect 21,000 subscribers from the CEB grid.
8. It's not about to abandon the most vulnerable or to destroy the welfare state (2026). This is precisely what has been going on since 2006. For a start have a look at how national income was distributed across the population for the five years which ended in 2012. And it looks as if you haven't heard what Jyoti Jeetun has been saying for a while. Namely that our public health system is a very heavy burden and that solutions will need to be found.
9. A state that spends without counting will end up not being able to help the most vulnerable (2026). The problem with the Mauritian state is that it embarked on a ruinous path since 2006 and this has caused some astronomical underspending including on our welfare state.
10. The next budget is going to be difficult but governing is not about buying social peace with public money (2026). Social peace is a top priority and all governments buy it with public money because having people rioting in the streets is not conducive to economic growth. Ask countries in the Middle East after the Arab Spring. Surely public money should not be spent paying a 35% return to IPPs that don't take any risks.
1. BRP is unsustainable because it represents 25% of the budget (2026). Whilst it's true that the BRP has been used as an electoral weapon in at least three general elections one must not forget that the economy is about 2.5X smaller than what the 15% flat tax and other unsustainable tax structures since 2006 were supposed to generate. So if we divide by 2.5 we get roughly a very manageable 10% which going forward will even decrease with an average management of the economy.
2. Our free public health system is a very heavy burden for the state so that we'll need to find solutions in the future (2026). Our public health system has for all intents and purposes crashed. Rs18.5 billion was set aside for it in the 2025/26 budget which represents only 2.3% of GDP. Seychelles budgeted 5% of GDP for the same item. Do the math. Don't forget that our economy is 2.5X smaller than what Sithanen had forecasted.
1. The real threat is AI. And we don't know how fast it's coming, because we have five fingers I say in about 5 years, it can be a bit less, a bit more (2025). So I guess horses think AI will be here in 12 months.
2. Unfortunately neo-liberalism has gone everywhere in the world (2026). No, there are several countries that follow other policies. Examples include the Nordic countries and many other European ones which have a strong welfare state. And he seems to forget that neo-liberalism was brought to Mauritius by him and his university buddy who gave him the post of Financial Secretary when an extreme version of trickle down economics was implemented with a 15% flat tax as from 2006.
3. There were no billionaires in the 1980s (2026). There have been billionaires since at least 1919.
4. We found Mao's cat that's good at catching mice (2013). Destroying our savings culture and generating growth rates that were much lower than the promised 8% hardly makes the case for Chairman Mao's feline being active during his stint as FS for almost eight years.
5. Tax cuts have worked as government received more revenue and jobs were created thanks to a higher level of investments (2011). This contradicts his own circular where he said that revenues would fall till 2013. And it was obvious that the tens of billions of rupees of FDI we had received since 2006 did not prevent the creation of a massive amount of poverty. Plus if the reforms had worked why did Sithanen not get a ticket and not even run as an independent candidate? Besides other components of the infamous reforms killed our savings culture. Mansoor should also tell us how the average GDP growth from 2006 to 2011 compared with the 8% target. There was also calls for his contract not to be renewed and even be terminated.
6. Our water problem is one of management, not of lack of finances (2011). The water network has expanded significantly after the CWA was established in 1973 including watershed events like the coming into operation of the Midlands Dam in 2003. If everything was going on swimmingly why was the payment of the rice/flour subsidy shifted from the budget to the STC? And there was also the cancellation of the school-feeding program which cost peanuts.
7. Rama Sithanen is one of the most intelligent economists I have met (2010). You should meet more and different economists. Befriending a Rs5 coin might also not be a bad move.
1. BRP eligibility at 60 years was an anomaly that had to be removed (2025). BRP is an important component of our welfare state which keeps 1/3 of Mauritians out of poverty. If you postpone the age people start getting it you will create a lot of poverty and hardship just like the 2012 HBS showed us voodoo economics had – an extra 22,000 people became poor over the preceding five years – and slow down the economy because a lot of these monies are used to buy essential things which keep the economy healthy not villas 99% Mauritians cannot afford.
2. It's shocking to see that we spend 90 billion rupees in the budget on social security while spending only 20 billion on education and health each and about 10 billion in other sectors (2025). Our economy at the end of 2024 was 2.3X times smaller than what Sithanen said it would grow to when he introduced his ruinous 15% flat tax in 2006 so it's not a big surprise that several of our budget items are a lot smaller than they ought to have been. Granted the BRP increased a bit too quickly during the last 10 years but if the economy had grown as Sithanen said it would with a very unfair share contribution from the wealthiest and we spent the same shares of GDP as the Seychelles then we should have spent 3.5X more on education than what we've budgeted in FY25/26 (Rs80.1 billion instead of 22.8 billion) and 5X more on health or 93.2 billion (instead of Rs18.5 billion).
1. Mauritius is in an economic boom (2024). His justification in August 2025 is that we've clipped growth rates higher than 5% for the preceding three years. The only reason we've clipped these growth rates is, as the following chart pulled from WTVF shows, that the economy has been rebounding from the nearly 15% contraction caused by Covid in 2020. We should also note that Mauritius has been one of the last countries in the world to get back to its pre-Covid levels of activity.
1. I'm the real father of the economic miracle (2019). Something Ramgoolam acknowledged in parliament a few weeks ago. The problem with this statement is that Bérenger was Finance Minister for only nine months as from June 1982 and alliance partners spent a lot of their time fighting each other which left very little time to hatch such a miracle. Plus Bérenger returned as FM between 2000 and 2003 during which time he presented not one but three budgets. We know what one of his colleagues had to say about the economy back then. And that there are problems with this notion of economic miracle.
2. Mauritius is the best managed country in the world (2003). That's what Bérenger repeated several times when he was PM. You need to wonder which yardsticks he was using to arrive at such a conclusion.
1. Your shopping trolley was full when I was PM (2023 onwards). Depends for whom. Let's see what the data shows.
2. When we were in power we didn't allow pump prices to go as high as they did on world markets (2024). The APM indeed reduced the volatility in oil prices. But let's see what happened when they crashed during the Great Recession.
1. We have reached the end of a cycle so we need a new constitution (2023 onwards). Bérenger and Ramgoolam have reached an advanced age and are way past the date they should have retired from active politics. Ramgoolam hasn't been looking healthy for quite some time – and he's been an unmitigated disaster as PM when he was – while Bérenger is seeing at least one ghost in Parliament. Subron is now a pensioner. Our constitution has not aged one bit though. It's still a national treasure that will serve us well for the next 100,000 years albeit with a few overdue additions. Subron seems to be confusing the cycles that a typical human goes through with our awesome constitution that was built to last many centuries. It's like the Hindu numerals, they have not gone out of fashion for the past 2,000 years. I don't know of anybody who wants their smartphone to run on Roman numerals.
2. Our FPTP system doesn't allow any new party to emerge (At least since 2010).
Go to Heaven for the climate, Hell for the company.
Mark Twain
It's the beginning of the pandemic and I land on a 2016 video where the great Indian actor Irrfan Khan is debating with some clerics a few statements that had sparked a little bit of controversy. I am watching this after founding out he had just died. It was public knowledge that he had cancer, had gone for treatment overseas but it was still a surprise to learn of his demise because I was under the impression that he had defeated it.
In the discussion, the Paan Singh Tomar actor was essentially saying that one should not accept any religion blindly but check which parts make sense, test them and that he didn't need anyone to explain the Koran to him. One of the clerics wouldn't have any of this while two others were not only more supportive of the leading man in Maqbool but appeared fairly mesmerised. And probably regretted that Richard Parker wasn't in the studio. At one point Irrfan quotes a dialogue from Life of Pi, the movie based on Yann Martel's award-winning book.
