Saturday, September 13, 2025

The Jag! Turns 20


So Elisa who thought I was quite opinionated asked me a question: "Why don't you blog?". I asked what that was and she gave me a rundown and after some time followed it up with an email with links to two blogging services, wordpress and blogger. I preferred the latter and published my first post OTD twenty years ago. 

At the time there was a new government in place, the finance minister had recently published a paper on his plans and at his request I had met him five days earlier. It was not exactly a meeting that generated good vibes.


More on the blogging journey later.

Tuesday, September 09, 2025

Gid Pu Konpran Byin Revolt Sitwayin Kont Reform BRP

Se en text ki mo pe ekrir an direk. Donk li pu sanze vit.

Pan kav fer konsiltasion, tiena irzans?

Guvernman tiena plin lozasion pu dir lepep ki zot pu repus pansion vieyes a 65 an. Ala 11 lokazion:

1. ant 2014 ek 2024 pandan ki zot ti dan karo kan

2. pandan kanpayn elektoral 2024 (sirtu ler pe fer port a port)

3. lor zot paz FB ek ban lezot rezo sosio

4. ler zot fin al lor radio dernie 10 an

5. dan ban program MBC avan eleksion

6. dan zot manifest elektoral (get kuma kuvertir ti bizin ete)

7. dan State of the Economy

8. dan diskur program

9. dan konsiltasion pre-bidzeter

10. pandan kanpayn eleksion minisipal

11. par organiz ban tripartit pu diskit sa

Pa tiena lot alternativ?

Si zot ti sezi en sa 11 lokazion la zot ti pu dekuver omwin 7 alternativ a ras manze depi dan labus fitir pansioner san ki ena bizin met zot tisert Anna u Anjalay avan al patoz dan labu ek lamar ek zot trwa lezel. 

1. Les fair-share contribution pu tultan e non pa zis pu 3 an parski zot fin truve kuma unfair-share contribution ant 2006 ek 2024 (flat tax 15%) fin rwin nu pei. De tut le fason si revin an mode unfair-share contribution nu pu res mari pre ek junk status tultan. E sa se san kont ban lezot brans lor ki zot pe asize e ki zot pe rod kupe. An pasan, si fin bizin met en fair-share contribution se parski li ti unfair... depi 2006. 

2. Met ankor de braket tax ek/u en wealth tax. En dividen 1.17 milyar rupi pu 2 dimun bizin taxe a 95% e non pa a 0% byin ki Sithanen ti truv sa normal ki li ti zero. Sa ti pu finans BRP pu en an pu ban 60-64 an pu 6,000 dimun.

3. Friz sa 14 milyar rupi initil ki anvi depanse lor konstriksion nuvo sime lor prosin 5 an (in ranz 1,035km nuvo sime ant 2006 ek 2022 ki ti deza to buku pu en period kot lekonomi fin grandi par selman 67% alor ki ti konstrir en kantite buku pli rezonab de 219km lor 17 an avan kan lekonomi ti vin 2.19X pli gran) e reget ban lezot item dan bidze. Kav pran sa 14 milyar rupi la pu retap nu system lasante piblik kot fin ena 154 milyar rupi de su-depans/su-investisman depi ki Sithanen ti kumans frir lekonomi ek so flat tax 15% an 2006.


4. Met en frin a ban kontra IPP marday ki pe plis Morisyin e detrir nu konpetitivite ek ban randman aniel de plis ki 35% depi plis ki 20 banane lawsi san ki zot pran oken risk. Assirvaden bizin updayt nu lor ban term ki fin renegosie sa 3 kontra IPP kin expire dernie 9 mwa. Li esansiel kin regle sa parski li pu redinamiz lekonomi e konpans pu tarif Amerikin e ban developman potansielman defavorab par rapor a AGOA.

5. Diminie gaspiyaz. Anu dir ena 10% gaspiyaz lor sa 224 milyar ki guvernman pu depanse dan FY25/26. Be si redwir gaspiyaz par 5% nu pu ekonomiz 1.1 milyar rupi ziska Zin 2026. E 3.7 milyar ziska Zin 2028 lor 736 milyar rupi depans. Gaspiyaz li kuma en lagres ki bizin tire. Mix se en zafer byin diferan.

6. Met an plas ban lezot politik ki grosi lekonomi pli vit. Pa tigit zafer kav fer dan sa domen la. Kuma somey kase.

7. Ti kav osi prezant bidze in prezante le 5 Zin 2025 lafin Novam 2024 e lamwatie sa 42 milyar rupi anplis ki pu rant dan lakes guvernman dan FY25/26 konpare a FY24/25, 21 milyar rupi, ti pu fini rantre la. Pey BRP a ban seki gayn 60 an ant Septam 2025 e Ut 2026 pu kut selman apepre 3 milyar rupi.

BRP ti pu krash si pa ti 

repus laz tus li a 65 an?

Si partu dan Moris pe krash depi 2006 se akoz flat tax 15% Sithanen (unfair-share contribution) e ban desizion kin pran pu kasyet ki li en pwazon pu Moris e non pa akoz BRP in sipozeman vin insutenab. Par egzanp fin tuy kiltir sevings ler an 2006 fin taxe lintere ki dimun ti pe gayne ek zot plasman dan labank e elimin ban egzanpsion ki zot ti servi pu mont zot ban plan finansier lor plizir deseni. En sel kut fin tir tusala, san diskision, san preavi. 

Ler sa ti arive dimun ti kumans defalke kas depi dan labank. Lerla nun tan Minis Finans lor radio fer en lapel a ban dimun pu azir... kom patriot: pa tir zot kas depi dan labank e pey tax lor lintere ki zot fin gayne. Sa fer nu rapel en zoli kotasion Mark Twain. Donk dapre Sithanen, de u trwa dimun ki partaz en dividen plis ki 1 milyar rupi fode pa pey oken tax lor la me en ta dimun pran depi so laklas mwayen ziska so pli mizer bizin peye tax lor ban som infiniman pli tipti. Se en ban rezon kifer li pa dan parlman depi 2010.

Li tre instriktif pu get en kut (tiart 2) par komie fin depans an mwins dan de sekter pu konpran kuma partu pe puri depi 20 an. Anu konsider sekter edikatif ek lasante piblik e get dan kolon 8% krwasans ki ti lavites Sithanen ti dir nu lekonomi pu grosi ek so flat tax 15%. Bidze depans 3% nu GDP dan ledikasion e lor 19 an guvernman fin depans 185 milyar rupi de 2024 an mwins dan sa sekter la. Si nu ti depans kuma Sesel (4.3%) be depans guvernman dan ledikasion 266 milyar rupi an mwins. Mem si ti gayn en krwasans mwayen de 7% olie 8% depi 2006 nun depans ant 133 a 190 milyar rupi an mwins. 

Nun met 5.1% krwasans dan dernie kolon parski se to mwayen ki nun grosi ant 1968 ek 2005 malgre ban gro siklon, de kriz petrolie, sanzman drastik dan politik moneter Amerikin an 1979, ban pri disik byin ba ler nu ti vin indepandan e de resesion mondial an 7 an ziska 1982. Si nu ti grosi a sa to la depi 2006 be mank ant 49 e 70 milyar rupi de depans. Tiek ban sif pu lasante piblik en kut. Overol mank ti mank 1,235 milyar rupi dan lakes guvernman depi ti met unfair-share contribution a 8% de krwasans.


Be kifer in les partu puri depi 2006?

Pu en rezon byin sinp. Li dan lintere politisyin. Par egzanp dan ka Sithanen ki ti ena ban lintere dan sekter ofsor met en flat tax 15% se en diakpot e diminie persepsion ki Moris en paradi fiskal. Rod fer kwar ki se en desizion intelizan e siport sa ek ban FDI rekor ki nun gayne. Problem se ki sa 335 milyar rupi FDI nun gayne ant 2006 ek 2024 la an mazorite zot ti spekilatif e sa par zot mem fin kree buku distorsion kuma ran pri later inaksesib a buku Morisyin. Lot zafer pli pir se ki ler in detrwir nu kiltir sevings e kraz mazorite Morisyin pu finans sa fasad de fiskalite lezer la be nun sibir en mank a gayne de sevings domestik de 2,287 milyar rupi lor sa period la. Anplis kom politisyin ek sa flat tax la lin fer buku plis kas vin disponib kom finansman politik





Desizion difisil. Li pu vin pli siportab si minis usi kup so pansion ek ban lezot lavantaz? Parlmanter kav pa pran lapey ziska 2029 me zot pu tuzur ena zot per diem e ban lezot surs finansman spesial. StLouisGate ena konsansis de kote lasanble nasional pu angaz dan ban akt de koripsion alege.

Mod operasional. Fer nu striktir taxasion vin unfair e letan fafa kane be to anlev en but dan leta providans e to fer propagan ek kudme en parti media tradisionel ek en lekip idio itil.

User fees an 2011.

Lamizer pu ogmante. Detres pu ogmante.

Pan konsilte Subron. Me Sithanen in travay lor la. Pa lezitim. Indepandans. Konfli intere. Bes tax. Fasad. Wax lyrical. Monocrop to monorisk.

Bom in eklate. Sutenabilite  

Sutenabilite = Tax rate (striktir taxasion) X Groser Lekonomi (krwasans)

Suinvestisman dan lasante piblik, edikasion e leres sekter dernie 20 an.

Pan regle problem nasional.

Boom Padayachy 6%.

Kifer. Ofsor, finansman politik. 

Ka lakur. 

Lekonomi 2.3X fwa pli piti ki seki li ti bizin ete.

Idio itil pan tir sonet dalarm tu sa letan la.

Rezon falasie an 2006 ek 2025. Kovid. Ukrayn.

Kas Sagos.

Konsiltasion selektif.

SoE ki zafer nuvo. Dernie 20 an pa 10.




Tu ban sif fose depi 2006. WTVF.




Calc.

Bom.

Sesel.

Byin tigit respe pu lanatir.

Testimony.

Rekomandasion.

In gayn letan fer konsiltasion selektif ki fin amen a diminie fair-share contribution par ziska 2/3 dan sertin ka dapre seki mon truve.

Careless analysis.

The frizzz: The golden age of capitalism was socialism.

Bizin ogmant VAT.

125.

E li bon ki mo dir u ki nu pe rant dan sa kriz la tre mal prepare finansierman e fiskalman. Parski nu defisit elve, nu det elve e nu pena ase lapud dan nu fizi pu nu tire. 15 Avril 2020, R+.

56 zur apre.

Lin sanz en model ekonomik kin fer so prev pandan tre lontan dan nu pei. E pu mwa se li pli gran risk ki le PM e so minis de finans in pran. Nu ti ena en model ekonomik ki ti baze loren fiskalite lezer. En fiskalite konpetitif. En fiskalite atraktif. En rezim ki ankuraz investiser vini. En rezim sinp, ki tu dimun konpran. E sa in amen ban rezilta ki nu kone. Avek sa rezim nun resi reziste la grand resesion de 2008. E nun vini mem. Pan fer ban reform ki ti bizin fer me malgre sa. Zordi minis in sanz sa totalman. Nun vin en pei ki zordi pe ena high taxation, discriminatory taxation, new taxation e ban dimun pe dir trwa zafer. E li bon nu dir sa. Lekonomi pa zis sif, lekonomi pa zis wadire nu koz krwasans nu koz amploi. Lekonomi ena en dayer ena en seksion ekonomix ki apel behavioural economics.

Ban dimun aster pu pas zot legzistans olie travay, olie kree, olie antrepran, se kumayer zot pu evit pey 43% u 49% tax. In kas la dinamik de la konfians.

Lin sanz en ekonomik kin don rezilta.

10 Zin 2020, TopFM

Tax planning. Travel. 500 milion.

Kuma Sithanen ti rod fer dan so bidze 2006/07 malgre ki sa lepok la li ti anons krwasans mwayen de 8% ek so flat tax 15% (ek sa kalite krwasans la Moris ti bizn koste mari pre ek Aaa, meyer reting Moody's, e laz tus BRP ti kav bese tu). 

Bidze Sithanen. Konpar ek ban lezot pei.

Lalwa travay.

Rasio debt/GDP.

2 pozision. 

2,287

MPO, E.

2. Temwinyaz.

KKL. 

Referans mondial kuma in frir lekonomi.

Sunday, August 10, 2025

Padayachy Statements That Don't Survive A Fact-Check

1. Mauritius is in an economic boom (2024). His justification in August 2025 is that we've clipped growth rates higher than 5% for the preceding three years. The only reason we've clipped these growth rates is, as the following chart pulled from WTVF shows, that the economy has been rebounding from the nearly 15% contraction caused by Covid in 2020. We should also note that Mauritius has been one of the last countries in the world to get back to its pre-Covid levels of activity. 

Thursday, August 07, 2025

Bérenger Statements That Don't Survive A Fact-Check

1. I'm the real father of the economic miracle (2019). Something Ramgoolam acknowledged in parliament a few weeks ago. The problem with this statement is that Bérenger was Finance Minister for only nine months as from June 1982 and alliance partners spent a lot of their time fighting each other which left very little time to hatch such a miracle. Plus Bérenger returned as FM between 2000 and 2003 during which time he presented not one but three budgets. We know what one of his colleagues had to say about the economy back then. And that there are problems with this notion of economic miracle.

2. Mauritius is the best managed country in the world (2003). That's what Bérenger repeated several times when he was PM. You need to wonder which yardsticks he was using to arrive at such a conclusion.