If you must forecast, forecast often.
Paul A. Samuelson
This is what the tea leaves are saying.
Somebody else will celebrate Halloween at Reduit
SAJ will not get a second term as President because it doesn’t make any sense for Navin Ramgoolam to reappoint him as the MMM and the MSM will most likely go together in the 2010 polls. Indeed the leaders of these two parties will somehow try to convince us as from mid-2009 that our future lies with what they will dub as Federation III. As usual, it is their future that they would be talking about as that’s the only political combination that will allow them to hold the most important office of the land, albeit for about 2½ years each. Of course if you don’t vote for Berenger as PM, you could, again, be accused of being a racist.
Berenger not likely to go first in 2010
Berenger has always lost general elections when he has presented himself as either the only candidate to the post of PM or the first in a power-sharing agreement. This of course lends some credibility to the view that a chunk of the electorate in 2000 thought that SAJ would somehow not have handed power to the Leader of the MMM in 2003. Anyway, a safer bet for Jugnauth Jr. and Berenger would be for the latter to become PM in the second half of the next term.
